Changes to Commodity Trading and Commodity Markets Growth

The commodity trading universe is now based on a modern, open, well regulated network of commodity exchanges across all time zones. Primary producers and end users can trade commodities within agreed and well defined regulations and using standardised contracts and dispute mechanisms. With the result that today it is much easier to smoothly trade across the range of commodities from gold to rice and from crude oil to aluminium and sugar.

Consider that a few commodities like crude oil and coffee have been traded for a very long time in mature markets, but now we see early 21st century markets innovating with different types of futures contracts being introduced. Among these more colourful types of commodity are carbon in the form of emission permits. With the rising anxiety about the serious environmental damage from climate change caused by greenhouse gases, a fast growing market has mushroomed in emissions permits, a form of activity known as carbon trading.

Looking ahead we are likely to see further growth in commodity markets which price environmental externalities, with exiting developments in plastics, emissions and water. Commodity trading activity is basically the buying and selling of futures contracts covering an array of commodities. So you may see commercial end users using commodity futures contracts to protect themselves from sudden price spikes, while the palladium or sugar producer will hedge their future sales and avoid losses on dips in the price.

Producers and end users play a relatively small role in the commodity markets compared to speculators or traders who move in and out of the markets trying to make profits, and provide the liquidity. A futures contract represents a specific type of contract either to buy or sell a specified quantity of a commodity at a price determined by supply and demand at time of contract, at an agreed date in the future.

Global commodity markets now see traders increasingly active using electronic trading platforms which are open 24 hours as the traditional open outcry on exchange floors falls away in overall terms. We now see the volumes of electronic trading increasing and many exchanges have merged to consolidate their platforms and achieve synergy.

Inevitably, with the access afforded by the internet, a combination of an accessible online trading software package and up to date market data, commodity trading has gradually become more available to the retail speculator, who will usually trade with smaller amounts of capital. Some traders will prefer to focus on a specific area of the commodities markets, while others look more at the price action and do not worry unduly about the fundamentals of supply and demand for raw materials or food.

The BRIC economies refer to China, Brazil, India and Russia and these emerging countries look set to continue growing over the long term and with them the growth in regional commodity markets should continue. In the Middle East we see how Dubai is rapidly emerging as an important financial centre, where one can trade WTI light, sweet crude oil, gold and silver, steel, plastics and Indian Rupee at Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange. In China, Dalian Commodity Exchange has plans to expand beyond its traditional area of agriculture commodities and move into industrial metals and other areas.

We can all see how the global credit crunch had such a profound effect on economic growth, with significant corrections in rates of growth and sharp falls in demand for commodities, as major economies and companies were seriously affected, but despite this commodities as an asset class are not seriously affected. Looking ahead to the future, as economic growth picks up there will be a resumption in demand for key commodities like crude oil, aluminium, copper, iron ore and demand for softs like sugar and wheat will be buoyant with competing food and biodiesel demands. Going forward, the outlook for commodity trading will be positive and as an activity it will again be at the centre of world finance.