Day Trading Analysis And Ideas For This Week

The market has resumed its daily uptrend and in the same move traded above the neckline of a weekly inverse head & shoulders (H&S). The target for the H&S would be the high for the year, while on the daily charts we have resistance from a pivot at S&P 1173, Nasdaq 2425. The Dow is also looking strong, while the Russell 2000 small cap index is lagging. The market strength comes along with weakness in the US dollar, pushed lower by statements from the Fed.

Despite the weakness in the dollar, crude oil has remained flat for several weeks, with reduced demand offsetting the weaker dollar. Gold, however, made new all time highs last week and agricultural products (DBA) continued the uptrend which started at the beginning of June. Unless we see a turn in the dollar or a dramatic (scary) rally in crude, look to buy pullbacks in the market as it moves back to the high for the year.

Gap Inc (GPS) is part of the very strong retail sector, and while it has not shown the strength of TJX or COST it has put in a second higher low on the daily chart and may be moving back into an uptrend. On Friday, GPS triggered a daily buy setup on solid volume after declining for 3 days on ligher volume. The technical entry would be above Friday’s high, with a stop under Thursday’s low, but a pullback on the 15min or 60 min chart could provide a much more favorable reward/risk ratio. First target would be $19.18, with potential to move up to $20.

After consolidating sideways into a short term daily uptrend line, Expedia (EXPE) broke out on Friday with an increase in volume, and made another new 52 week high (after making one the prior week). The next daily resistance dates back to late 2007, but a target could be set at $30.40, a measured move from $28 equal to the move from $26.53 to $28.90 leading into the daily consolidation. A long entry could be taken over $29.85 with a stop under $29.50 (from the 60 minute chart). The next target could be at $32.70, the next 2007 resistance level.

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